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Predictions of sorts...

During the time of new years, we get to hear people giving predictions about how the coming year would be for us. When I was a kid, Indian astrology and palm reading etc. were the famous methods. But now things are much more fancy. There are atleast 10-12 different styles in which they predict your future. And mostly, one doesn't match the other. The worst is, if you pick any of the last year's predictions you realise it was so grossly wrong. Ofcourse, if you are a believer of one or all of these methods, then you can even relate bankruptcy as a correct prediction, if actually it read as : "You will be involved in many money exchanges". So that in fact is the point. Why do these predictions and luck/destiny related talks excite a huge number of people. That has to be because we almost always are thinking of tomorrow and not just that, we are even hopeful about our tomorrow, in spite of the fact that there is not an iota of evidence from past that it should be any good!! Hope and tomorrow!! Ever seen a small kid following blindly a colorful butterfly? Know what I mean?

How much of our energies do we spend, planning "better tomorrow"? I bet, if all humans just stop doing that, the world energy crisis will come to an end! No but really, sometimes most of our worries can be reduced down to worries for the "better tomorrow"(and by worries like these I mean worries of an individual, NOT as a worry for community etc...Those are sacred things and worth getting worried about but do not excite me much). A realisation like this, however, is neither profound nor of any great insight. Neither does it solve problems nor gives a way to solve it. What is the way then? Let me tell you what I believe is not the way:

Hope is a word which ofcourse always has to do with better tomorrow. So lets just talk about hope for now. People say that when you are very bogged down (which mostly will be due to above mentioned reason, namely worries of better tomorrow), hope is the only thing that can help you reach the shore. Hope=remedy. Is this really true? May be it works for few. But all the inspirational talks, and fact that others have more worries than I do so on and so forth, therapies and medicine... Ain't these all just like Tarot cards? They work for few, but mostly they are just bogus. If today you are sad/depressed/surrounded by problems, then only thing you can possibly do, I believe, is you accept it. There may be no better tomorrow, mostly there isn't, and there may be no luck in store for you. Deal with these bare facts. If there is any way out, its does not go via hope. If hope and inspirational talks have helped you come out of a situation, please look back. May be you need to still worry about all those problems you thought are over. May be you never solved them, you simply ignored them.

I know I sound hopeless, but thats the point.

Comments

Anonymous said…
well, what you is half-true. As they say you hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Most of the times the situation is not black or white types, its more like 80% chance that it might get better and 20% that it might not. So be prepared that things wont work out but also try hard for the 20% chance that you do have. This is where the hope comes in--to give your best shot.
Ayan said…
The business of prediction has got a lot to do with a psychological aspect that goes under the name ‘Barnum effect’. From the astrological ‘predictions’ the human mind picks up selectively those items that apply to the individual and ignores the discordant part. And astrological predictions are frequently worded in such a way that almost everything applies to anybody. (When P T Barnum, the owner of Barnum and Bailey’s circus was asked the secret of his success, he replied that his circus contained a diversity of acts and so even if different people in the audience liked different acts, everyone went away satisfied that he or she saw something worthwhile! Hence the name Barnum effect.)

The Barnum effect has been tested on believers and non-believers in astrology. In an experiment, each person from a group was given three word profiles giving his/her character-sketch, one prepared by an astrologer based on that person’s horoscope, another being a similar profile of some other person in the group and the third one a totally synthetic and vaguely worded (Barnum) profile, same one given to everybody. The Barnum profile runs somewhat along these lines; see how far it applies to you:

You have a great need for other people to like you and admire you. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not used to your advantage. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed by restrictions and limitations. You pride yourself on being an independent thinker and do not accept other’s statements without satisfactory proof. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic. Security is one of your major goals in life.

Each group member was asked to rank on a scale of 1 to 5 how well each profile matched him or her. While the average ranking showed no significant distinction between the first two types, each was ranked well below the Barnum profile. This finding tells a lot about the ‘authenticity’ of astrological profiles and what makes people believe them.

Let's move from the crook's domain to the cape of Good Hope. I personally believe a perfect world without any overconfident swindler would to pretty nighmarishly boring. There will be people who would take advantage of the information assymmetry and the emotional weakness we all suffer from. But living in a society we do maintain a knowledge pool shared by the members who are collaborative and can collectively judge if a person is faking for the sake of entertainment (Type I) or guided by the greed to earn more at the cost of weaker souls (Type II). An empathetic society can gain by transforming a Type II into a Type I by using the instruments at it's disposal intelligently. When we cross the hurdles posed by a misguided few, we do land up into a 'better tomorrow'. Hoping without any action can be fatal, but we do gain confidence from the wisdom we acquire as booby prizes which came to us when we had been unwise (and keep coming).

Anyway, if you really sounded hopeless, you wouldn't probably take the pains to post your views. But still, if you need some hope and inspiration, you are welcome :)
Anonymous said…
80 and 20 have got interchanged in the last comment!
Nutan said…
@ayan, thanks for stopping by and writing in... hmmm, that was pretty informative...

surely, i will not seek any kind of inspiration or hope....i don't care for either.... if it comes naturally, like enthu to write, then ok...else even better...

@anon, yes may be.... inspirational examples, stimulus of hope, all these are important if you wish to achieve something "do something"....as long as they work for you....they do.... sometimes none of this may... isn't that a possibility?....
Anonymous said…
"as long as they work for you....they do.... sometimes none of this may... isn't that a possibility?...."

you did not read my comment properly...
"prepare for the worst", so one should be always be prepared that nothing might work, but no harm in working for the little chance that it might.

and i think you misunderstand what hope means, it doesnot mean that you sit on a chair and start thinking that surely things will get better...no!! far from that, having hope means to work hard to try and make the best of the little chance that things may work out.

what you say abt accepting is part of the process. But this process is more than that....its having the courage to accept the worst possibilty, and the patience to keep trying for the best till the last stage...
Ayan said…
"surely, i will not seek any kind of inspiration or hope....i don't care for either...."


This reminds me of Deshu in the RGV production named 'D', who tells Hashim Bhai, "main kismat ko nehi maanta".


"if it comes naturally, like enthu to write, then ok...else even better..."

If I don't get something, I assume it's not intended for me. Hope, enthu, in'spirit - I can't relate them properly.

I wrote the comment because the business of prediction and the way most of us queue for it always fascinated me. So I actually got back to a 2001 Narlikar article in EPW titled "Vedic Astrology or Jyotirvigyan: Neither Vedic Nor Vigyan " to copy the Barnum effect passage.

"If today you are sad/depressed/surrounded by problems, then only thing you can possibly do, I believe, is you accept it."

This principle of conformity doesn't live up to the Deshu standards :)

When you think you can't do anything but accept it, you are actually undermining your free will, being guided by Laplace's demon of causal determinism. This is a kind of resignation featured by those who queue to the astrologers for the right gem to get area X or area Y of their life get properly handled. Like for years I am trying to stop smoking, but I am not being able to. I can't handle this because of the point at which my free will works. For a kleptomaniac, who can handle this issue of smoking pretty easily, might find it hard to resist her/himself from picking up sweets from the supermarket, which is again something that will never occur to me.

So we all have our own points of free will and there can be thousands of environmental, neural, hormonal and other parameters that affect us. Though it is a war within oneself, finally it is my free will. It is me who will decide whether I am going to take that puff of cigarette or recluse from the smoking zone for a healthier life. Irrespective of the thousands of parameters that influence me, it is completely my decision whether I want to gulp in the smoke or not.

That's hard job, I agree. Maybe harder than reading this whole comment, if anybody did it.
Nutan said…
@ayan, denshu??yeh kya character hai?.. anyways...

@ayan, anon: i am not talking abt no-hard-work...may be my guide shud say more about that :).... but i am talking abt hope being a stimulus to start hard work...all i am saying is... so some people work hard with a stone on their hand and feel stone is doing it...some keep hope in them and say that if they were not hopeful this wudn't have happened....(ofcourse only stone or only hope will definitely not enough..) i am just trying to wonder whether hope plays bigger role than that stupid stone....and i say it doesn't...i say hope is as bogus.....

@ayan, i meant "accept" as "acknowledge"...so what i am saying is, first stage is to acknowledge the problem...i never said once u do that do fight it out... or don't fight it out if u wish.....

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